It won’t be long or Eredivisie season 2013/2014 kicks off in the Netherlands. Personally I can’t wait to see how the new players in the league will influence the performance of their teams. Positively or negatively. Which team is going to win the league or the KNVB Beker and who is going to be the next top scorer in the league? I tried to answer these questions with a simulation in the most addicting game ever: Football Manager. With the database of the MU Data Update July I simulated the first season ten times, with some rather interesting results.
Eredivisie
According to FM, Ajax is going to have a tough time securing their fourth consecutive title. Surprisingly enough the Eredivisie has a 40% chance of being won by AZ Alkmaar. On average the Eredivisie is won by 72 points whereas 67 points usually suffices for the runner up position (meaning Champions League qualification). The largest difference between number one and two was in round six, where Ajax won the league with sixteen points to spare. On the other hand the current champions also hold the record for the smallest difference in the simulation. In round nine Ajax took the league with a zero point difference to the number two, AZ. Only six goals in favour of the Ajax put the team from Amsterdam in first place. A more nerve-wracking scenario is virtually impossible.
Even if AZ is the most likely winner of the league, the top scorer is to be found in Rotterdam. It’s Feyenoord’s striker Graziano Pellè who wins this title 40% of the time, leaving players like Bojan and Finnbogason miles behind. The amount of goals scored on average by the top scorer of the league is somewhat low. With twenty goals one should be able to win this title. The highest amount of goals scored in this simulation was 24 by Pellè while AZ striker Erik Falkenburg won this title by scoring 18 goals.
While scoring a goal is very important we should not forget about the player who is insightful enough to provide the ball to the scorer-to-be. There is not much of a trend going on other than the fact that most of these players are midfielders, surprise surprise. Oscar Hiljemark managed to get on the list twice and I’m curious if he is going to live up to this statistic in real life. FC Twente is going to miss the assists of Nacer Chadli, who transferred to Tottenham recently. Fortunately for them Dusan Tadic is still amongst them. Meanwhile it appears that AZ has found a solid replacement for Maher in Gudelj.
Let’s take a look at the clean sheets. Once again it is not predicted champion AZ’s keeper Esteban who is superior compared to the other keepers and once again the winner is to be found in Rotterdam. Feyenoord keeper Erwin Mulder had the most clean sheets in four rounds. He shared this title once with Ajax keeper Vermeer, the second most successful keeper in the simulation. On average the winner of this title kept his goal clean in 13 games.
Football Manager also promises us an interesting battle for relegation avoidance. In ten simulation rounds eight clubs relegated to the Jupiler League. Especially Cambuur Leeuwarden and Go Ahead Eagles are likely to experience a tough season. Even stable Eredivisie clubs like FC Groningen, ADO Den Haag and Heracles are able to go down this season.
Moving on to the second largest price of the season, the KNVB Beker. It is FC Utrecht who is living up to its reputation as cup fighter. It looks like the cup is either going to Utrecht or to Heerenveen. On the other hand you can see that this particular competition can be won by anyone. Even clubs with virtually no chance of winning the league are able to go far in this tournament. The unluckiest team has to be Roda JC, who managed to reach the final at least two times (can’t remember exact number) and did not win a single one of them. Nevertheless I still consider them to be a dangerous outsider in this tournament and won’t be surprised to see them winning the beker in real life.
According to FM we are bound to experience an exciting season in the Netherlands. With AZ being tipped as the new league winner I must be honest when I say I doubt that’s actually going to happen, but I will admit they have the potential to go far this year, even without Adam Maher. Winning the league is not necessarily related to having the top scorer in the team and it proves once again the winning the title is a team based performance. The battle against relegation is going to be interesting as well, as Cambuur and Go Ahead Eagles will do anything to beat the odds. Meanwhile we can look forward to an interesting KNVB tournament where smaller clubs tend to beat the bigger clubs. This season is going to be amazing and I can’t wait for it to begin.
AlexOnFM 